Philly Daily ran my On Crime column today.
You can read
the column via the link below or the following text:
Paul Davis: FBI data shows violent crime falls at historic rate – Philly Daily
According to the FBI’s newly released data, the
country’s violent crime rate fell 9.3% in 2025, which marked the largest
year-to-year decline since the FBI began estimating crime trends in 1936.
The FBI
stated that the estimated number of violent crime offenses fell from 2024, with
murder and nonnegligent manslaughter down 18.1%, robbery down 18.5%, rape down
7.6%, and aggravated assault down 7.2%.
The
estimated murder rate fell to 4.1 per 100,000 inhabitants—the same rate
recorded in 1955 and 1956 and the lowest since the FBI began keeping national
estimates.
FBI Director
Kash Patel called the decline a result of law enforcement agencies working
together across jurisdictions.
“Law enforcement has delivered for the
American people,” Patel said. "Collectively, law enforcement across the
country - state, local travel and federal - has delivered for the American
people the largest reduction in violent crime in U.S. history. Violent crime,
and you're talking rape, robbery, assault, all down double-digits across
America."
The FBI
noted that the statistics offer a striking reversal from the increase in
violent crime during the COVID-19 pandemic. The statistics also represent the
second consecutive year of substantial declines.
“The FBI
estimates that 1,119,768 violent crime offenses occurred nationwide in 2025,
producing a rate of 327.6 offenses per 100,000 inhabitants, down from 362.9 in
2024,” the FBI stated. “Property crime declined as well, falling an estimated
12.4%. Burglary decreased 15.8%, larceny-theft fell 9.8%, and motor vehicle
theft dropped 22.7%.”
The FBI
stated that the declines were reflected in several of the FBI’s long-term
measures. The 2025 robbery rate of 49.4 per 100,000 was the lowest in 20 years,
while the rape rate of 36.1 was the lowest since 2012. The murder rate was the
lowest in the past 20 years.
The FBI
estimates that law enforcement agencies made 413,991 arrests for violent crime
offenses in 2025.
The FBI
explained that the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program is compiled from data
submitted by law enforcement agencies throughout the country. The statistics
provide more than a national tally of crimes. Through the National
Incident-Based Reporting System, or NIBRS, participating agencies provide
detailed information about offenses, victims, known offenders, relationships
between victims and offenders, and locations. That information helps law
enforcement agencies and others identify patterns and understand how crime
changes over time.
“The 2025
statistics were compiled from data submitted by more than 17,000 state, county,
city, Tribal, and university and college law enforcement agencies, representing
nearly 97% of the U.S. population.”
According to
the FBI, the data also reflects the Bureau’s continuing work with its law
enforcement partners.
“Under
Director Patel, the FBI streamlined requirements to bring on task force
officers from partner agencies more quickly, and agents are now even more integrated
with federal law enforcement agencies through Homeland Security Task Forces. Those
partnerships can be particularly important when offenders or criminal
organizations operate across jurisdictional boundaries.”
The FBI noted
that national estimates do not describe the experience of every community. “Crime
can vary significantly among cities, counties, states, and regions, and the UCR
estimates are based on crimes reported to participating law enforcement
agencies. But the national trend is clear: Every major category of violent
crime declined in 2025.”
But the FBI
states that the decline does not mean the threat of violent crime has
disappeared. “More than 1.1 million violent offenses were still estimated to
have occurred nationwide last year. But after the sharp rise in violence during
the pandemic, the latest FBI data show two consecutive years of significant
declines—and a 2025 decrease that stands apart in the Bureau’s nearly 90-year
history of national crime estimates.”
“We’re going
to carry forward the mission of crushing violent crime and defending the
homeland,” Patel said. “We are going to be relentless pursuers of justice. We
are going to safeguard our communities. We are going to save our kids.”
Paul Davis’s On Crime column appears here each week. He is also a contributor to Broad + Liberty and Counterterrorism magazine. He can be reached via pauldavisoncrime.com.
